MAPPING THE CURRENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE EXTREMES AND HEALTH THREATS TO VULNERABLE POPULATIONS IN KOSOVO

Abstract

Introduction: Climate change affects human lives and health in different ways. High temperatures and heat waves are associated with excessive morbidity and mortality, especially among vulnerable categories of the population. In addition to deaths, high temperatures can increase pressure on the healthcare system by increasing emergency room visits, hospitalizations, premature births, causing mental health problems and other negative health outcomes. Infectious diseases that are transmitted through food and water have a high incidence rate and can be exacerbated by climate extremes such as heat waves, floods and droughts. As the climate continues to change, the risks to health systems and facilities including hospitals, clinics and community care centers are increasing, among others reducing the ability of health workers to protect people from a range of climate hazards. 

Objective: The main objective of the study is to investigate and create an initial database of data and indicators for assessing the risk of climate change on the health of the population and the health system in Kosovo, as a tool to adapt to climate changes and reduce the risks for the population health and healthcare systems and facilities – including hospitals, clinics and community-based care centers.

Materials and methods: For conducting the assessment, data, information and publications

in the hydrometeorological, health and other relevant sectors, as well as relevant international publications were used. A vulnerability assessment is translated through the definition and analysis of the climate, public health and environmental health profile of Kosovo and the expected climate extremes in future scenarios, the organization and preparedness of the health sector, as well as the research of the current health profile of the population in Kosovo. 

Results and discussion: the current and future climate profile of Kosovo is analyzed with a focus on the most important climate extremes such as heat waves and floods. Testing the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 future climate scenarios showed an increase in the average annual temperature and number of tropical days on almost the whole territory of the country with a maximum of 40C and a decrease of the precipitation especially in the summer period for more than 30% (in the period 2071-2100) compared to the baseline scenarios.

We analyzed the demographic structure and some determinants of health of the population of Kosovo, vulnerable groups such as the elderly, the chronically ill, especially those with cardiorespiratory diseases, people with low incomes and low education, outdoor workers and the homeless, as well as the risk regions in the countries where the highest average temperatures or the highest atmospheric precipitation are registered. There is a particular risk in the northern part of the country, where the older population with low incomes and education is large. Fewer economic opportunities, higher poverty rates, greater distances to health centers and fewer services are available there. These structural factors thus further compromise the existing poor situation in which the aging population, including their long-term care, remains subject to lower quality care in rural and more northern areas. The highest mortality rate is expected to be registered among the most vulnerable population over 65 years of age.

Finally, a mapping of the risks of climatic extremes in Kosovo was prepared with indicators for further monitoring and assessment of vulnerability. In conclusion, high temperatures, rainfall and floods are presented as the biggest current and even more future climate and health risks in the area of Kosovo, which will also be a serious threat and burden for the health system.